Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2068 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2068 LAS 08:00 → ABQ 10:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2231 LAS 15:00 → ABQ 17:37 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2068 Southwest	LAS 08:00	ABQ 10:36	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2109 Southwest	LAS 07:47	ABQ 10:16	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1088 Southwest	LAS 10:05	ABQ 12:41	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4108 Southwest	LAS 19:57	ABQ 22:27	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 9003 Southwest	LAS 13:20	ABQ 15:51	22%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2042 Southwest	LAS 17:21	ABQ 19:56	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2231 Southwest	LAS 15:00	ABQ 17:37	25%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON