Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 4109 at 10:34, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4109 Southwest	LAS 10:34	AMA 14:28	6%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Amarillo is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LAS 00:00 → DFW 04:38AA 3018	3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:31 → AMA 09:56AA 3920 · flown by Envoy	7h 56m	100%	94%
American Details →	LAS 13:18 → DFW 18:02AA 2797	2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:04 → AMA 21:50AA 3607 · flown by Envoy	6h 32m	100%	91%
American Details →	LAS 06:03 → DFW 10:48AA 2932	3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:26 → AMA 15:44AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	7h 41m	100%	89%
American Details →	LAS 08:51 → DFW 13:34AA 1908	3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:17 → AMA 18:38AA 3789 · flown by Envoy	7h 47m	99%	88%
United Details →	LAS 01:03 → IAH 06:16UA 2009	3h 14m Houston	IAH 09:30 → AMA 11:21UA 4821 · flown by CommuteAir	8h 18m	100%	87%
American Details →	LAS 10:11 → DFW 15:08AA 1584	3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:58 → AMA 20:22AA 3990 · flown by Envoy	8h 11m	98%	87%
American Details →	LAS 07:13 → DFW 12:06AA 617	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:10 → AMA 14:26AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	5h 13m	95%	85%
United Details →	LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315	1h 29m Denver	DEN 14:10 → AMA 16:43UA 5233 · flown by SkyWest	5h 06m	96%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON