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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:19, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 3h 06m Minneapolis MSP 14:28 → ANC 17:28DL 411 12h 09m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 07:00 → ORD 12:48UA 664 3h 22m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 13h 54m 98% 83%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 08:20 → PDX 10:44AS 596 3h 47m Portland PDX 14:31 → ANC 17:24AS 1406 10h 04m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 11:00 → PDX 13:20AS 1467 1h 41m Portland PDX 15:01 → ANC 18:00AS 315 8h 00m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:09 → SEA 14:00DL 2922 3h 24m Seattle SEA 17:24 → ANC 20:18DL 2367 10h 09m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 2h 20m Denver DEN 19:00 → ANC 22:45UA 280 10h 09m 97% 80%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 17:06 → SEA 19:43AS 749 3h 12m Seattle SEA 22:55 → ANC 01:40 +1AS 205 9h 34m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:45 → MSP 16:53DL 2262 1h 17m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 10h 15m 94% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAS 09:42 → SEA 12:18AS 676 53m Seattle SEA 13:11 → ANC 15:54AS 1381 7h 12m 53% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON