Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 11:27, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Appleton on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 11:27 → DTW 18:26DL 334	2h 43m Detroit	DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest	8h 10m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 21:16 → ATW 22:31DL 2945	9h 50m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LAS 00:44 → DTW 07:29DL 502	2h 31m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → ATW 10:29DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	7h 45m	98%	88%
American Details →	LAS 13:08 → DFW 17:56AA 1482	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → ATW 22:41AA 4188 · flown by Envoy	7h 33m	96%	86%
United Details →	LAS 11:37 → DEN 14:27UA 1006	3h 24m Denver	DEN 17:51 → ATW 21:19UA 2089	7h 42m	99%	83%
United Details →	LAS 10:19 → ORD 15:53UA 2102	2h 13m Chicago	ORD 18:06 → ATW 19:20UA 5987 · flown by SkyWest	7h 01m	98%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON