Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2238 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2238 LAS 06:30 → AUS 11:13 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 984 LAS 14:17 → AUS 18:54 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2238 Southwest	LAS 06:30	AUS 11:13	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2116 Southwest	LAS 06:48	AUS 11:32	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 246 Southwest	LAS 08:52	AUS 13:33	11%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2381 Southwest	LAS 09:06	AUS 13:49	13%	1%	0.5%	no record
F9 4684 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 09:42	AUS 14:38	16%	5%	0.8%	77%
DL 2444 Delta	LAS 17:41	AUS 22:28	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1732 Southwest	LAS 11:06	AUS 15:49	22%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4096 Southwest	LAS 11:12	AUS 15:48	23%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 449 Southwest	LAS 16:51	AUS 21:31	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 984 Southwest	LAS 14:17	AUS 18:54	25%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON