Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4220 LAS 06:53 → BNA 12:31 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1107 LAS 16:23 → BNA 21:49 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4220 Southwest	LAS 06:53	BNA 12:31	4%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 2124 Southwest	LAS 09:19	BNA 14:52	8%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 2127 Southwest	LAS 00:22	BNA 06:00	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1915 Southwest	LAS 10:25	BNA 15:50	10%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 3871 Southwest	LAS 11:43	BNA 17:08	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 1107 Southwest	LAS 16:23	BNA 21:49	13%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON