Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 1178 LAS 12:12 → BOS 20:34 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest DL 1020 LAS 12:11 → BOS 20:20 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1178 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 12:12	BOS 20:34	11%	5%	0.6%	68%
B6 178 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 00:03	BOS 08:21	11%	3%	0.6%	84%
B6 1578 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 12:13	BOS 20:20	12%	5%	0.6%	62%
DL 1020 Delta	LAS 12:11	BOS 20:20	13%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:28 → MSP 05:26DL 2834	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:45DL 2649	7h 17m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44DL 864	1h 17m Detroit	DTW 14:01 → BOS 16:09DL 1171	7h 19m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674	1h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	7h 36m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON