Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2141 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 2141 LAS 06:33 → BUR 07:44 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2136 LAS 19:00 → BUR 20:11 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2141 Southwest	LAS 06:33	BUR 07:44	2%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 897 Southwest	LAS 07:29	BUR 08:38	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 281 Southwest	LAS 09:31	BUR 10:38	6%	1%	0.9%	no record
F9 4107 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:12	BUR 12:41	9%	4%	1.8%	89%
WN 2133 Southwest	LAS 12:13	BUR 13:23	10%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 1961 Southwest	LAS 16:15	BUR 17:24	12%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1525 Southwest	LAS 17:26	BUR 18:36	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1918 Southwest	LAS 14:24	BUR 15:34	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2136 Southwest	LAS 19:00	BUR 20:11	13%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON