Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2143 LAS 23:10 → BWI 06:44 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1928 LAS 08:55 → BWI 16:31 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2143 Southwest	LAS 23:10	BWI 06:44	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4479 Southwest	LAS 07:39	BWI 15:12	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1928 Southwest	LAS 08:55	BWI 16:31	8%	1%	0.4%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 14m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	6h 47m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:57 → MSP 16:57DL 2262	58m Minneapolis	MSP 17:55 → BWI 21:32DL 2918	6h 35m	89%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON