Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2957 LAS 07:00 → CLT 14:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2470 LAS 13:12 → CLT 20:27 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2957 American Flight history →	LAS 07:00	CLT 14:35	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 2330 American	LAS 00:12	CLT 07:20	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 8 American	LAS 07:55	CLT 15:18	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2981 American Flight history →	LAS 11:06	CLT 18:20	14%	5%	0.6%	93%
AA 2470 American Flight history →	LAS 13:12	CLT 20:27	15%	5%	0.6%	84%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	55m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	6h 12m	89%	79%
Delta Details →	LAS 14:38 → ATL 21:49DL 591	52m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	6h 20m	82%	76%
American Details →	LAS 12:15 → PHX 13:38AA 2109	51m Phoenix	PHX 14:29 → CLT 21:31AA 1591	6h 16m	86%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON