tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4706 Southwest LAS 08:32 CMH 15:20 10% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 4857 Southwest LAS 16:12 CMH 23:06 16% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:44 → DTW 07:29DL 502 2h 46m Detroit DTW 10:15 → CMH 11:23DL 5810 · flown by Republic 7h 39m 99% 94%
UnitedDetails → LAS 10:19 → ORD 15:54UA 2102 3h 51m Chicago ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic 9h 05m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470 2h 56m Detroit DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic 8h 03m 99% 94%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:13 → EWR 08:20UA 406 2h 18m Newark EWR 10:38 → CMH 12:33UA 3638 · flown by Republic 9h 20m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:28 → MSP 05:26DL 2834 1h 44m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → CMH 10:02DL 2772 6h 34m 97% 91%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:11 → ORD 05:48AA 3077 1h 46m Chicago ORD 07:34 → CMH 10:01AA 3414 · flown by Envoy 6h 50m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:35 → JFK 17:59DL 333 3h 16m New York JFK 21:15 → CMH 23:31DL 5658 · flown by Republic 10h 56m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 14:23 → CMH 16:03DL 2892 7h 03m 96% 90%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON