Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2794 at 22:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day


DL 2794 Delta Flight history →	LAS 22:55	CVG 05:42	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
F9 3412 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 01:49	CVG 08:48	25%	5%	0.9%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 00:28 → MSP 05:26DL 2834	1h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03DL 954	6h 35m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:04 → ATL 20:02DL 748	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395	8h 35m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273	6h 03m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:57 → MSP 16:57DL 2262	3h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469	8h 14m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:31 → MSP 14:27DL 2261	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:39DL 703	6h 08m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	7h 41m	97%	89%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 08m Denver	DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:27UA 1978	5h 57m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → CVG 19:25DL 3119	9h 20m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON