Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4117 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 4117 LAS 06:33 → DAL 11:18 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 174 LAS 14:27 → DAL 19:03 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4117 Southwest	LAS 06:33	DAL 11:18	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 284 Southwest	LAS 08:25	DAL 12:59	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 378 Southwest	LAS 17:51	DAL 22:30	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 245 Southwest	LAS 10:29	DAL 15:02	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4118 Southwest	LAS 16:10	DAL 20:52	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 174 Southwest	LAS 14:27	DAL 19:03	14%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON