Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2156 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 2156 LAS 06:03 → DEN 08:56 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3540 LAS 14:53 → DEN 18:00 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2156 Southwest	LAS 06:03	DEN 08:56	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 596 United Flight history →	LAS 05:30	DEN 08:32	4%	2%	0.5%	98%
UA 1315 United Flight history →	LAS 09:37	DEN 12:41	6%	3%	0.5%	93%
WN 2163 Southwest	LAS 08:57	DEN 11:43	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1513 United	LAS 07:51	DEN 10:46	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 163 Southwest	LAS 07:59	DEN 10:44	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 2350 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:00	DEN 09:05	8%	2%	0.7%	88%
UA 1006 United Flight history →	LAS 11:37	DEN 14:28	9%	3%	0.5%	91%
WN 1806 Southwest	LAS 10:13	DEN 12:55	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 4612 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 20:35	DEN 23:33	12%	4%	0.8%	73%
UA 1323 United Flight history →	LAS 13:36	DEN 16:40	13%	5%	0.5%	77%
F9 1766 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 09:29	DEN 12:30	13%	5%	0.7%	79%
UA 484 United	LAS 14:57	DEN 17:52	13%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 2108 United Flight history →	LAS 16:25	DEN 19:30	13%	5%	0.5%	73%
WN 2162 Southwest	LAS 18:50	DEN 21:30	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2157 Southwest	LAS 11:51	DEN 14:32	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3181 Southwest	LAS 13:54	DEN 16:40	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2160 Southwest	LAS 15:32	DEN 18:17	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 3540 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:53	DEN 18:00	20%	5%	0.7%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON