Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2932 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 2932 LAS 05:51 → DFW 10:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1079 LAS 15:23 → DFW 20:06 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2932 American Flight history →	LAS 05:51	DFW 10:35	6%	3%	1.3%	94%
AA 654 American Flight history →	LAS 06:50	DFW 11:35	8%	5%	1.2%	86%
AA 617 American Flight history →	LAS 07:13	DFW 12:06	9%	4%	1.3%	89%
F9 3886 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 08:43	DFW 13:38	11%	4%	0.8%	92%
AA 1908 American Flight history →	LAS 08:49	DFW 13:41	12%	4%	1.3%	87%
AA 2797 American Flight history →	LAS 09:15	DFW 14:00	14%	5%	0.9%	94%
AA 1584 American Flight history →	LAS 10:11	DFW 15:08	15%	6%	1.3%	87%
F9 1948 Frontier	LAS 17:54	DFW 22:45	16%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1494 American Flight history →	LAS 11:28	DFW 16:20	20%	8%	1.0%	78%
AA 3286 American Flight history →	LAS 19:11	DFW 00:02	21%	6%	1.3%	65%
F9 3978 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 00:06	DFW 04:55	21%	5%	0.9%	82%
AA 1198 American	LAS 11:34	DFW 16:29	22%	8%	1.3%	no record
F9 1650 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 00:59	DFW 05:43	23%	6%	1.1%	77%
AA 3018 American Flight history →	LAS 00:09	DFW 04:42	24%	6%	0.6%	75%
AA 777 American Flight history →	LAS 14:02	DFW 19:03	24%	8%	1.0%	73%
AA 2376 American Flight history →	LAS 15:23	DFW 20:24	25%	8%	1.0%	66%
AA 1482 American Flight history →	LAS 12:39	DFW 17:22	25%	9%	1.0%	78%
AA 1079 American	LAS 15:23	DFW 20:06	27%	7%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON