Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 4119 at 13:38, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4119 Southwest	LAS 13:38	DSM 18:23	20%	3%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 20m Denver	DEN 09:52 → DSM 12:47UA 596	5h 17m	98%	91%
American Details →	LAS 07:13 → DFW 12:06AA 617	3h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:53 → DSM 17:52AA 3930 · flown by Envoy	8h 39m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	8h 47m	98%	87%
United Details →	LAS 07:00 → ORD 12:48UA 664	3h 32m Chicago	ORD 16:20 → DSM 17:41UA 2836	8h 41m	99%	85%
United Details →	LAS 12:41 → ORD 18:24UA 314	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → DSM 22:56UA 1839	8h 15m	99%	84%
United Details →	LAS 11:37 → DEN 14:27UA 1006	3h 13m Denver	DEN 17:40 → DSM 20:30UA 549	6h 53m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	LAS 01:04 → MSP 06:06DL 2834	2h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → DSM 10:14DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	7h 10m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:04 → ATL 20:02DL 748	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306	7h 25m	91%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON