Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 864 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 864 LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1280 LAS 11:16 → DTW 18:00 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 864 Delta Flight history →	LAS 05:50	DTW 12:44	4%	1%	0.6%	94%
DL 470 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:59	DTW 16:58	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 778 Delta Flight history →	LAS 15:11	DTW 22:17	9%	2%	0.6%	77%
DL 502 Delta Flight history →	LAS 00:44	DTW 07:29	10%	2%	0.6%	61%
DL 334 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:27	DTW 18:26	10%	2%	0.6%	87%
F9 2802 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 21:43	DTW 04:42	12%	4%	0.7%	70%
WN 1280 Southwest	LAS 11:16	DTW 18:00	16%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON