tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4660 Southwest LAS 07:43 ELP 10:24 5% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3840 Southwest LAS 19:43 ELP 22:29 13% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 3h 04m Denver DEN 11:36 → ELP 13:33UA 2128 7h 03m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAS 10:04 → LAX 11:24AA 6425 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m Los Angeles LAX 14:49 → ELP 17:59AA 6453 · flown by SkyWest 6h 55m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → LAS 07:13 → DFW 12:06AA 617 2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:41 → ELP 15:36AA 1681 7h 23m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAS 10:25 → IAH 15:40UA 1711 1h 18m Houston IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 6h 37m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → LAS 08:51 → DFW 13:34AA 1908 2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:12 → ELP 17:09AA 2097 7h 18m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 2h 40m Denver DEN 19:20 → ELP 21:11UA 333 6h 35m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777 2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:33 → ELP 22:20AA 1514 7h 18m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → LAS 11:28 → DFW 16:20AA 1494 2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:41 → ELP 19:34AA 555 7h 06m 94% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAS 10:28 → SEA 13:14AS 629 54m Seattle SEA 14:08 → ELP 18:36AS 2191 · flown by Horizon 7h 08m 66% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON