Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1975 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1975 LAS 07:00 → EWR 15:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1933 LAS 13:43 → EWR 21:38 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1975 United Flight history →	LAS 07:00	EWR 15:00	8%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 1681 United Flight history →	LAS 22:34	EWR 06:30	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 1386 United Flight history →	LAS 15:29	EWR 23:36	11%	5%	0.6%	86%
UA 406 United Flight history →	LAS 00:06	EWR 07:39	11%	3%	0.7%	85%
UA 1784 United Flight history →	LAS 09:56	EWR 18:00	15%	4%	0.6%	87%
UA 611 United	LAS 14:45	EWR 22:25	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1731 United Flight history →	LAS 12:35	EWR 20:40	19%	6%	0.6%	74%
UA 1933 United Flight history →	LAS 13:43	EWR 21:38	21%	6%	0.6%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 01:04 → MSP 06:07DL 2834	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → EWR 10:49DL 2864	6h 45m	92%	86%
United Details →	LAS 11:37 → DEN 14:27UA 1006	1h 08m Denver	DEN 15:35 → EWR 21:29UA 1715	6h 52m	92%	73%
United Details →	LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315	1h 00m Denver	DEN 13:41 → EWR 19:35UA 1505	6h 58m	92%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON