Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:15 pm at Las Vegas); 5 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via SFO, leaving 16:18, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops today


AS 805 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 18:20	HNL 21:39	25%	12%	0.2%	70%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAS 16:18 → SFO 17:57AS 634	1h 50m San Francisco	SFO 19:47 → HNL 22:18AS 833	9h 00m	92%	76%
Alaska Details →	LAS 17:06 → SEA 19:42AS 749	1h 21m Seattle	SEA 21:03 → HNL 23:53AS 901	9h 47m	84%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAS 17:06 → SEA 19:42AS 749	1h 08m Seattle	SEA 20:50 → HNL 23:33AS 268	9h 27m	74%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON