Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1596 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 1596 LAS 05:10 → HOU 10:11 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3690 LAS 12:40 → HOU 17:40 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1596 Southwest	LAS 05:10	HOU 10:11	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 138 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:33	HOU 11:35	6%	1%	0.5%	96%
WN 4323 Southwest	LAS 06:40	HOU 11:40	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 833 Southwest	LAS 08:55	HOU 13:55	15%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 136 Southwest	LAS 08:45	HOU 13:36	15%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 165 Southwest	LAS 18:28	HOU 23:27	19%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 2305 Southwest	LAS 00:47	HOU 05:49	20%	2%	0.3%	no record
WN 2176 Southwest	LAS 00:58	HOU 05:55	21%	2%	0.3%	no record
WN 2174 Southwest	LAS 11:59	HOU 16:52	25%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4287 Southwest	LAS 15:18	HOU 20:15	26%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 3690 Southwest	LAS 12:40	HOU 17:40	27%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON