Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 284 at 00:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 284 LAS 00:00 → IAD 07:44 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 3494 LAS 22:42 → IAD 06:19 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 284 United Flight history →	LAS 00:00	IAD 07:44	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 1140 United Flight history →	LAS 08:48	IAD 16:24	7%	3%	0.5%	87%
UA 2630 United	LAS 13:13	IAD 20:46	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 3494 Frontier	LAS 22:42	IAD 06:19	17%	5%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:44 → DTW 07:29DL 502	1h 21m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → IAD 10:23DL 2884	6h 39m	94%	89%
Delta Details →	LAS 01:02 → MSP 06:06DL 2834	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 07:17 → IAD 10:46DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	6h 44m	95%	89%
United Details →	LAS 11:37 → DEN 14:27UA 1006	1h 13m Denver	DEN 15:40 → IAD 21:11UA 421	6h 34m	93%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON