Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2009 LAS 00:54 → IAH 06:13 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 1966 LAS 14:28 → IAH 19:58 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2009 United Flight history →	LAS 00:54	IAH 06:13	7%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 1994 United	LAS 07:41	IAH 12:39	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1711 United Flight history →	LAS 10:25	IAH 15:40	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 1627 United	LAS 12:18	IAH 17:37	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2741 United Flight history →	LAS 15:40	IAH 20:55	11%	4%	0.6%	74%
UA 1864 United	LAS 16:49	IAH 22:12	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 1966 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:28	IAH 19:58	14%	5%	0.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON