Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 11 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 510 LAS 07:05 → JFK 15:17 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 3081 LAS 12:39 → JFK 20:30 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 510 Delta Flight history →	LAS 07:05	JFK 15:17	6%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 1159 Delta	LAS 23:35	JFK 07:22	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1356 American	LAS 22:41	JFK 06:43	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
B6 2348 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 07:28	JFK 15:30	8%	2%	0.7%	81%
AA 1890 American	LAS 08:43	JFK 16:43	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 333 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:35	JFK 17:59	9%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 795 Delta Flight history →	LAS 12:10	JFK 20:39	11%	3%	0.7%	78%
B6 948 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 23:59	JFK 08:00	11%	3%	0.8%	72%
B6 1448 JetBlue	LAS 12:00	JFK 19:51	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
B6 348 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 14:24	JFK 22:20	12%	3%	0.7%	73%
AA 3081 American	LAS 12:39	JFK 20:30	14%	5%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470	55m Detroit	DTW 17:53 → JFK 19:49DL 1316	6h 50m	91%	80%
Delta Details →	LAS 15:38 → MSP 19:35DL 2238	47m Minneapolis	MSP 20:22 → JFK 00:02 +1DL 2692	5h 24m	80%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON