Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 553 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 553 LAS 06:52 → LAX 08:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 715 LAS 16:24 → LAX 17:33 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 553 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:52	LAX 08:00	7%	2%	0.7%	94%
WN 335 Southwest	LAS 09:07	LAX 10:15	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 3291 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 08:07	LAX 09:25	9%	3%	0.7%	82%
AA 2690 American Flight history →	LAS 07:11	LAX 08:30	10%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 1696 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:08	LAX 14:24	10%	3%	0.7%	75%
AA 6425 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 10:04	LAX 11:24	11%	4%	0.7%	93%
UA 2808 United	LAS 08:09	LAX 09:23	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2316 United Flight history →	LAS 10:43	LAX 11:57	12%	4%	0.6%	90%
OO 6511 SkyWest	LAS 17:39	LAX 18:59	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 2263 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:42	LAX 16:08	12%	5%	0.7%	89%
DL 1703 Delta	LAS 17:30	LAX 18:46	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2184 United Flight history →	LAS 14:15	LAX 15:35	14%	5%	0.6%	83%
DL 2253 Delta Flight history →	LAS 16:44	LAX 17:56	15%	3%	0.7%	92%
UA 1803 United	LAS 16:09	LAX 17:27	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4127 Southwest	LAS 13:35	LAX 14:42	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 996 Southwest	LAS 20:11	LAX 21:17	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1180 American	LAS 14:30	LAX 15:47	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1382 Southwest	LAS 17:40	LAX 18:48	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 715 Southwest	LAS 16:24	LAX 17:33	22%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON