tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1987 at 16:38, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1987 Southwest LAS 16:38 MAF 20:44 16% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Midland is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:09 → DFW 04:53AA 3018 3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:27 → MAF 09:49AA 3643 · flown by Envoy 7h 40m 100% 92%
AmericanDetails → LAS 13:18 → DFW 18:02AA 2797 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:06 → MAF 21:29AA 4172 · flown by Envoy 6h 11m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → LAS 13:08 → DFW 17:56AA 1482 2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:35 → MAF 21:53AA 3541 · flown by Envoy 6h 45m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → LAS 10:11 → DFW 15:08AA 1584 3h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:37 → MAF 20:03AA 4279 · flown by Envoy 7h 52m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:58 → IAH 06:09UA 2009 3h 26m Houston IAH 09:35 → MAF 11:07UA 6186 · flown by Mesa 8h 09m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 33m Denver DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59UA 5333 · flown by SkyWest 5h 29m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → LAS 07:13 → DFW 12:06AA 617 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:36 → MAF 16:53AA 3653 · flown by Envoy 7h 40m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 2h 27m Denver DEN 19:07 → MAF 22:11UA 4732 · flown by SkyWest 6h 35m 97% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON