Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2204 LAS 22:42 → MCO 06:08 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1876 LAS 21:42 → MCO 05:30 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2204 Southwest	LAS 22:42	MCO 06:08	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 202 Southwest	LAS 09:07	MCO 16:28	12%	3%	1.2%	no record
B6 2832 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 14:55	MCO 22:36	16%	5%	0.9%	86%
F9 1876 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 21:42	MCO 05:30	18%	7%	1.3%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON