Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:57 am at Las Vegas)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 2339 at 12:23, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2339 Southwest	LAS 12:23	MEM 17:34	28%	6%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	2h 29m Denver	DEN 11:01 → MEM 14:33UA 2789	7h 03m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470	3h 07m Detroit	DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230	9h 02m	99%	87%
American Details →	LAS 05:53 → DFW 10:35AA 2932	1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:27 → MEM 14:05AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	6h 12m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:44 → MSP 16:51DL 2262	3h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 20:35 → MEM 22:46DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest	9h 02m	98%	85%
American Details →	LAS 09:17 → DFW 14:00AA 2797	3h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:44 → MEM 19:26AA 3932 · flown by Envoy	8h 09m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	LAS 12:28 → ATL 19:28DL 748	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MEM 23:24DL 2501	8h 56m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	LAS 08:40 → MSP 13:46DL 2261	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 15:10 → MEM 17:21DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	6h 41m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:40 → ATL 16:41DL 927	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 20:07 → MEM 20:30DL 3020	8h 50m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323	50m Denver	DEN 17:30 → MEM 20:56UA 2130	5h 20m	72%	60%
American Details →	LAS 15:23 → DFW 20:24AA 2376	1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:32 → MEM 23:10AA 1758	5h 47m	72%	49%
American Details →	LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:50 → MEM 21:28AA 2153	5h 26m	60%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON