Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1539 at 22:15 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 1539 LAS 22:15 → MIA 06:03 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 803 LAS 11:36 → MIA 19:20 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1539 American	LAS 22:15	MIA 06:03	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 3318 American Flight history →	LAS 07:49	MIA 15:32	16%	4%	0.9%	81%
AA 803 American	LAS 11:36	MIA 19:20	31%	9%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808	58m Phoenix	PHX 08:58 → MIA 16:34AA 1968	6h 49m	90%	73%
American Details →	LAS 07:13 → DFW 12:06AA 617	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:08 → MIA 17:12AA 2461	6h 59m	94%	69%
American Details →	LAS 08:51 → DFW 13:34AA 1908	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:25 → MIA 18:24AA 1167	6h 33m	89%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON