Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1282 LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4746 LAS 13:53 → MSP 19:09 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1282 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:19	MSP 11:22	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 2834 Delta Flight history →	LAS 00:28	MSP 05:26	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2261 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:31	MSP 14:27	8%	2%	0.6%	97%
DL 2262 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:57	MSP 16:57	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 2238 Delta Flight history →	LAS 15:38	MSP 19:35	13%	3%	0.6%	79%
F9 4746 Frontier	LAS 13:53	MSP 19:09	16%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON