Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 958 LAS 07:49 → OAK 09:18 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2045 LAS 10:54 → OAK 12:36 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 958 Southwest	LAS 07:49	OAK 09:18	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1932 Southwest	LAS 09:24	OAK 10:55	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2267 Southwest	LAS 00:05	OAK 01:21	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2224 Southwest	LAS 15:51	OAK 17:22	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1204 Southwest	LAS 15:13	OAK 16:45	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2222 Southwest	LAS 11:37	OAK 13:04	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2225 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:04	OAK 21:35	11%	3%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
WN 332 Southwest	LAS 17:36	OAK 19:07	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 2045 Frontier	LAS 10:54	OAK 12:36	14%	6%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON