Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4725 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 4725 LAS 07:53 → ONT 08:57 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4923 LAS 14:53 → ONT 15:57 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4725 Southwest	LAS 07:53	ONT 08:57	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
F9 1283 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:00	ONT 08:03	11%	5%	0.9%	86%
WN 955 Southwest	LAS 11:27	ONT 12:33	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 1923 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 15:43	ONT 17:06	13%	5%	0.8%	79%
WN 2239 Southwest	LAS 19:55	ONT 21:01	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4923 Southwest	LAS 14:53	ONT 15:57	16%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON