Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1057 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1057 LAS 06:02 → ORD 11:33 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1497 LAS 12:55 → ORD 18:26 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1057 United	LAS 06:02	ORD 11:33	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 664 United Flight history →	LAS 07:00	ORD 12:48	6%	3%	0.5%	89%
AA 3077 American Flight history →	LAS 00:11	ORD 05:29	7%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 2258 American Flight history →	LAS 07:20	ORD 13:16	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 1672 United Flight history →	LAS 09:01	ORD 14:44	9%	3%	0.5%	80%
AA 3080 American	LAS 09:46	ORD 15:31	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2102 United Flight history →	LAS 10:19	ORD 15:54	12%	3%	0.6%	92%
F9 2146 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:08	ORD 11:43	12%	4%	0.9%	70%
UA 1583 United Flight history →	LAS 10:25	ORD 16:21	13%	4%	0.6%	83%
UA 2320 United Flight history →	LAS 16:15	ORD 22:13	15%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 314 United Flight history →	LAS 12:41	ORD 18:25	18%	5%	0.5%	69%
AA 2366 American	LAS 15:41	ORD 21:12	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 706 United Flight history →	LAS 14:25	ORD 20:23	20%	6%	0.5%	67%
AA 1497 American	LAS 12:55	ORD 18:26	22%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON