Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3130 LAS 07:57 → PDX 10:17 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 234 LAS 19:52 → PDX 22:13 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3130 Southwest	LAS 07:57	PDX 10:17	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 596 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 08:18	PDX 10:21	10%	2%	0.7%	91%
AS 779 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 18:27	PDX 20:46	11%	3%	0.6%	82%
AS 1467 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 11:00	PDX 13:20	11%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 4134 Southwest	LAS 15:30	PDX 17:51	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 756 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 14:08	PDX 16:29	12%	3%	0.6%	80%
WN 234 Southwest	LAS 19:52	PDX 22:13	12%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON