Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 534 LAS 06:41 → PHL 14:28 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1881 LAS 11:24 → PHL 19:12 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 534 American	LAS 06:41	PHL 14:28	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 779 American Flight history →	LAS 08:46	PHL 16:44	11%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 1881 American	LAS 11:24	PHL 19:12	14%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 03m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	6h 42m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	7h 04m	94%	86%
United Details →	LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315	57m Denver	DEN 13:38 → PHL 19:26UA 2787	6h 49m	92%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON