Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2244 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 2244 LAS 07:03 → PHX 08:21 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2247 LAS 16:31 → PHX 17:42 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2244 Southwest	LAS 07:03	PHX 08:21	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 103 Southwest	LAS 08:53	PHX 10:11	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1808 American Flight history →	LAS 06:45	PHX 08:00	9%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 162 Southwest	LAS 10:53	PHX 12:06	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2251 Southwest	LAS 19:57	PHX 21:13	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2109 American Flight history →	LAS 12:15	PHX 13:38	11%	6%	0.6%	79%
WN 2288 Southwest	LAS 18:24	PHX 19:40	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1731 Southwest	LAS 15:00	PHX 16:11	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1956 American	LAS 09:56	PHX 11:18	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 1020 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 17:27	PHX 18:56	14%	7%	0.8%	86%
WN 2248 Southwest	LAS 17:16	PHX 18:29	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2446 American	LAS 13:12	PHX 14:36	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 4048 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:37	PHX 12:59	15%	5%	0.8%	88%
AA 1541 American Flight history →	LAS 16:46	PHX 18:16	16%	7%	0.6%	76%
WN 347 Southwest	LAS 13:31	PHX 14:42	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 1896 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 02:14	PHX 03:45	17%	5%	0.8%	75%
WN 2247 Southwest	LAS 16:31	PHX 17:42	18%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON