tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 01:04, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 421 Southwest LAS 13:53 PIT 21:07 17% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:11 → ORD 05:48AA 3077 4h 00m Chicago ORD 09:48 → PIT 12:26AA 4467 · flown by Republic 9h 15m 100% 94%
UnitedDetails → LAS 12:41 → ORD 18:24UA 314 2h 56m Chicago ORD 21:20 → PIT 23:59UA 3464 · flown by Republic 8h 18m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAS 01:04 → MSP 06:05DL 2834 1h 24m Minneapolis MSP 07:29 → PIT 10:33DL 845 6h 29m 97% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 2h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188 7h 30m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:04 → ATL 20:02DL 748 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351 8h 46m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568 8h 08m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:57 → MSP 16:57DL 2262 2h 49m Minneapolis MSP 19:46 → PIT 22:51DL 1134 7h 54m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:09 → DFW 04:53AA 3018 2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:09 → PIT 11:03AA 1583 7h 54m 98% 89%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAS 06:18 → SEA 08:41AS 741 53m Seattle SEA 09:34 → PIT 17:12AS 412 7h 54m 70% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON