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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 01:03, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 822 Delta Flight history → LAS 22:17 RDU 05:44 8% 3% 0.6% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:44 → DTW 07:29DL 502 2h 46m Detroit DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164 8h 13m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:27 → DTW 18:26DL 334 3h 14m Detroit DTW 21:40 → RDU 23:25DL 2839 8h 58m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 17m Denver DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269 6h 46m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44DL 864 3h 18m Detroit DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407 8h 57m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → LAS 05:53 → ORD 11:45AA 3077 1h 38m Chicago ORD 13:23 → RDU 16:31AA 4503 · flown by Republic 7h 38m 97% 89%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:09 → DFW 04:52AA 3018 2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 06:55 → RDU 10:47AA 2683 7h 38m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 7h 20m 96% 88%
FrontierDetails → LAS 00:59 → DFW 05:43F9 1650 3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:50 → RDU 12:51F9 3330 8h 52m 98% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677 47m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 6h 15m 71% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON