Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 11 nonstops are 2–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2255 LAS 06:43 → RNO 08:08 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2433 LAS 14:32 → RNO 15:58 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2255 Southwest	LAS 06:43	RNO 08:08	2%	<1%	0.7%	no record
WN 205 Southwest	LAS 08:10	RNO 09:33	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 263 Southwest	LAS 17:13	RNO 18:34	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1225 Southwest	LAS 10:31	RNO 11:41	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3605 Southwest	LAS 19:45	RNO 21:05	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 594 Southwest	LAS 18:27	RNO 19:50	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1708 Southwest	LAS 12:49	RNO 14:09	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4189 Southwest	LAS 11:46	RNO 13:08	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 364 Southwest	LAS 16:10	RNO 17:31	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 4241 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 18:30	RNO 20:02	10%	6%	1.2%	71%
WN 2433 Southwest	LAS 14:32	RNO 15:58	11%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON