Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2263 at 06:38 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2263 LAS 06:38 → SAN 07:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2269 LAS 14:33 → SAN 15:44 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2263 Southwest	LAS 06:38	SAN 07:53	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2266 Southwest	LAS 08:05	SAN 09:19	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1604 Southwest	LAS 09:23	SAN 10:34	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 425 Southwest	LAS 00:02	SAN 01:02	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 3741 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 17:44	SAN 19:13	17%	4%	0.8%	79%
AS 3011 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 19:06	SAN 20:28	18%	5%	0.9%	66%
OO 3210 SkyWest	LAS 10:41	SAN 12:02	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 1325 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 15:26	SAN 16:58	18%	6%	0.8%	73%
WN 1979 Southwest	LAS 10:53	SAN 12:06	22%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 369 Southwest	LAS 19:56	SAN 21:06	23%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4635 Southwest	LAS 17:57	SAN 19:06	25%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4237 Southwest	LAS 13:29	SAN 14:40	26%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2268 Southwest	LAS 16:19	SAN 17:29	26%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2269 Southwest	LAS 14:33	SAN 15:44	28%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 2252 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 06:50	SAN 08:04	24%	4%	3.8%	76%
AS 2416 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 11:11	SAN 12:29	35%	4%	4.7%	65%
AS 2253 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 07:59	SAN 09:15	56%	8%	2.0%	44%
AS 2282 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 14:38	SAN 15:57	68%	30%	2.2%	32%
AS 2251 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 18:19	SAN 19:36	76%	33%	9.8%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON