Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2047 at 06:53 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 2047 LAS 06:53 → SAT 11:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3420 LAS 09:29 → SAT 14:20 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2047 Southwest	LAS 06:53	SAT 11:33	4%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 990 Southwest	LAS 10:20	SAT 14:59	10%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4653 Southwest	LAS 13:39	SAT 18:19	13%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 2276 Southwest	LAS 16:46	SAT 21:25	13%	3%	0.4%	no record
F9 3420 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 09:29	SAT 14:20	14%	5%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON