tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1431 Southwest LAS 11:18 SBA 12:40 10% 2% 0.8% no record
WN 4754 Southwest LAS 20:03 SBA 21:21 12% 5% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 2h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 5h 59m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → LAS 17:00 → SLC 19:25DL 1672 1h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest 5h 05m 97% 93%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:15 → SLC 15:44DL 1659 1h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 17:08 → SBA 18:16DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 5h 01m 95% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:12UA 574 3h 51m San Francisco SFO 17:03 → SBA 18:32UA 639 7h 02m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 2h 54m Denver DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671 7h 32m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808 1h 59m Phoenix PHX 09:59 → SBA 11:51AA 2928 5h 06m 95% 85%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 14:08 → PDX 16:29AS 756 1h 19m Portland PDX 17:48 → SBA 20:04AS 2029 · flown by Horizon 5h 56m 93% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 07:15 → SFO 08:52UA 2356 1h 37m San Francisco SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578 4h 37m 97% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON