Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 15:38, is the safest bet: 48% chance of reaching Louisville on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 4552 Southwest	LAS 16:08	SDF 22:41	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470	2h 47m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic	8h 13m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	LAS 01:04 → MSP 06:06DL 2834	2h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 09:04 → SDF 12:00DL 3978 · flown by SkyWest	7h 56m	99%	91%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 13m Denver	DEN 09:45 → SDF 14:28UA 1479	5h 58m	98%	91%
American Details →	LAS 05:51 → DFW 10:35AA 2932	3h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → SDF 17:27AA 3629 · flown by Envoy	8h 36m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:04 → ATL 20:02DL 748	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624	8h 22m	99%	90%
United Details →	LAS 12:41 → ORD 18:25UA 314	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → SDF 23:59UA 3659 · flown by Republic	8h 18m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195	6h 42m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13DL 2831	9h 08m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON