Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2844 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2844 LAS 06:10 → SEA 08:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 676 LAS 13:45 → SEA 16:05 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2844 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:10	SEA 08:45	8%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 2922 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:09	SEA 14:00	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
F9 4203 Frontier	LAS 05:54	SEA 08:57	10%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 2905 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:31	SEA 16:16	12%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 2956 Delta Flight history →	LAS 19:06	SEA 21:49	14%	4%	0.6%	72%
DL 2880 Delta Flight history →	LAS 14:40	SEA 17:21	15%	3%	0.6%	84%
AS 629 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 10:28	SEA 13:14	18%	2%	0.6%	89%
AS 785 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 11:30	SEA 14:14	18%	3%	0.6%	85%
AS 741 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 06:18	SEA 08:41	19%	2%	0.6%	87%
F9 2407 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:45	SEA 10:39	20%	3%	0.8%	80%
WN 2940 Southwest	LAS 20:59	SEA 23:29	22%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 701 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 09:04	SEA 11:05	22%	3%	0.6%	96%worse than usual
AS 749 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 16:55	SEA 19:29	22%	3%	0.6%	81%
WN 2283 Southwest	LAS 08:08	SEA 10:41	23%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 1719 Southwest	LAS 14:35	SEA 17:09	24%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 676 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 13:45	SEA 16:05	25%	3%	0.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON