Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 15 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 998 LAS 00:14 → SFO 01:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4157 LAS 16:23 → SFO 18:14 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 998 Southwest	LAS 00:14	SFO 01:44	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 3019 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:37	SFO 08:26	12%	4%	1.2%	76%
UA 2047 United Flight history →	LAS 15:20	SFO 17:18	12%	5%	0.5%	71%
WN 349 Southwest	LAS 09:47	SFO 11:23	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1603 United Flight history →	LAS 18:20	SFO 20:02	12%	5%	0.7%	66%
UA 2356 United Flight history →	LAS 07:15	SFO 08:52	13%	3%	0.6%	63%
UA 574 United Flight history →	LAS 11:30	SFO 13:12	13%	5%	0.6%	69%
AS 634 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 18:03	SFO 19:41	13%	5%	0.8%	58%
UA 1160 United	LAS 16:54	SFO 18:35	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 4401 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 12:32	SFO 14:21	14%	6%	0.9%	52%
AS 570 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 12:18	SFO 13:50	15%	5%	0.7%	58%
UA 1799 United Flight history →	LAS 13:34	SFO 15:16	16%	5%	0.5%	57%
WN 4512 Southwest	LAS 14:54	SFO 16:26	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1330 Southwest	LAS 20:20	SFO 21:51	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
F9 4157 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:23	SFO 18:14	17%	6%	1.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON