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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via DFW, leaving 00:09, is the safest bet: 94% chance of reaching Springfield on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Springfield on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Springfield is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:09 → DFW 04:52AA 3018 2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:28 → SGF 08:56AA 4331 · flown by Envoy 6h 47m 100% 94%
AmericanDetails → LAS 05:53 → DFW 10:35AA 2932 2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:36 → SGF 14:03AA 3494 · flown by Envoy 6h 10m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 21:16 → SGF 22:10DL 1105 9h 29m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAS 10:11 → DFW 15:08AA 1584 3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:01 → SGF 20:31AA 3671 · flown by Envoy 8h 20m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAS 07:13 → DFW 12:06AA 617 2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:13 → SGF 15:37AA 3556 · flown by Envoy 6h 24m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 22m Denver DEN 09:54 → SGF 12:52UA 5481 · flown by SkyWest 5h 22m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → LAS 08:51 → DFW 13:34AA 1908 3h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:47 → SGF 18:10AA 4311 · flown by Envoy 7h 19m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 11:37 → DEN 14:27UA 1006 3h 11m Denver DEN 17:38 → SGF 20:43UA 5886 · flown by SkyWest 7h 06m 98% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON