Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 2–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1509 LAS 06:38 → SJC 08:09 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2293 LAS 14:51 → SJC 16:20 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1509 Southwest	LAS 06:38	SJC 08:09	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4761 Southwest	LAS 07:35	SJC 09:02	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1682 Southwest	LAS 09:46	SJC 11:21	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 372 Southwest	LAS 12:44	SJC 14:16	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1037 Southwest	LAS 18:26	SJC 19:55	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2294 Southwest	LAS 20:40	SJC 22:03	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4965 Southwest	LAS 17:27	SJC 18:55	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2293 Southwest	LAS 14:51	SJC 16:20	12%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON