Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2674 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 2674 LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 375 LAS 14:13 → SLC 16:32 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2674 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:00	SLC 08:19	4%	2%	0.6%	96%
WN 4740 Southwest	LAS 08:09	SLC 10:24	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
DL 1698 Delta Flight history →	LAS 10:00	SLC 12:29	7%	3%	0.6%	89%
F9 3016 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 10:08	SLC 12:46	8%	4%	0.8%	93%
DL 1659 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:15	SLC 15:44	8%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 1672 Delta Flight history →	LAS 17:00	SLC 19:25	9%	4%	0.6%	77%
WN 4912 Southwest	LAS 19:52	SLC 22:15	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 375 Southwest	LAS 14:13	SLC 16:32	16%	2%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON