Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2304 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–11%.

Safest bet that day WN 2304 LAS 07:41 → SMF 09:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2069 LAS 14:31 → SMF 16:04 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2304 Southwest	LAS 07:41	SMF 09:10	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2305 Southwest	LAS 09:33	SMF 11:03	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
F9 4779 Frontier	LAS 06:07	SMF 07:59	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 819 Southwest	LAS 10:54	SMF 12:25	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1402 Southwest	LAS 19:40	SMF 21:12	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 191 Southwest	LAS 17:35	SMF 19:05	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2306 Southwest	LAS 16:08	SMF 17:40	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 140 Southwest	LAS 14:15	SMF 15:47	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 977 Southwest	LAS 13:12	SMF 14:40	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 2069 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:31	SMF 16:04	18%	6%	0.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON