Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3368 LAS 07:59 → SNA 09:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1414 LAS 12:25 → SNA 13:30 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3368 Southwest	LAS 07:59	SNA 09:04	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3529 Southwest	LAS 09:17	SNA 10:22	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 4179 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 18:01	SNA 19:15	9%	4%	0.7%	89%
WN 1263 Southwest	LAS 20:40	SNA 21:45	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 128 Southwest	LAS 18:26	SNA 19:31	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 125 SkyWest	LAS 10:14	SNA 11:25	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 4681 Southwest	LAS 15:31	SNA 16:36	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 4078 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 14:09	SNA 15:22	15%	6%	0.6%	88%
WN 1414 Southwest	LAS 12:25	SNA 13:30	15%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON